“You can see the difference in the data,” Bales said. “As you warm the climate by each degree Fahrenheit, the snowline goes up about 250 feet in average long-term warming. But that doesn’t mean we won’t have snow at high elevations.”
In the long run, despite year-to-year variability, Bales said he sees California struggling to maintain a healthy snowpack as the snowline moves higher and the snowpack eventually gets smaller.
That means droughts and wildfire risk could increase over time as the world continues to burn fossil fuels, causing human-caused climate change.
“Faster melt rates are caused by a warmer climate,” Bales said. “It’s not good for wildfire risk, and soils are going to dry out faster about a month after the snow melts.”
However, over the next few months, the more harmful issue isn’t just about faster snowmelt. UC Merced climatology professor John Abatzoglou worries that a hotter-than-normal summer will follow the speedier snowmelt rate. Last summer was the world’s hottest on record. The same goes for California.
“The combination of a little earlier-than-normal melt out of our snowpack, along with what is likely going to be another warm summer, is sort of shifting the odds for elevated fire potential across the state,” Abatzoglou said. “Over the past 50 years, summer has taken the medal in terms of the fastest warming season.”
